If you don't understand all the letters and figures there will usually be a little legend tucked away somewhere at the bottom of the page that tells you what they mean. These figures are the meat of our betting system. If not, go to the nearest bookmakers and tell the first knowledgeable looking cove you come across and ask what these figures mean.
If you are using The Mirror, the figures you are interested in are the ones in brackets, for this horse racing and betting system, immediately after the horses name. Then the string of figures on the left of the horse's name. These will be his placings over his last six races. If the one closest to his name is 1 then he won last time out.
You should then look at the letter in brackets that is either above or immediately below the title of the race eg The Fred Bloggs Kingcup Handicap It will be from A to F in the alaphabet. A, are the creme de la creme, F are the nags and no hopers. Just a tip. Keep your racing pages in date order in a file, it makes them so much easier to handle. There is of course in all this the handicapper to take into account.
He is a very canny fellow and his job is to seek to add weight to the best horses to improve the chances of the lesser cattle. And he is very good at it. But that is the fun of your chosen hobby, beating the handicapper. There is a school of thought that says that if at all possible, avoid punting on handicaps and stick to sellers plates and maidens stakes. I do not subscribe to this school myself. Of course, the SP will reflect an obvious potential winner but if you are going to succeed in this system you have to be rigorous.
If there is a four day horse that won last time out you have to back it at whatever price. If you are actually punting at the bookies and this is much more fun of course, then you can always ask the manager if you can take a price with him and you may get better than the SP, but you may get worse!
It is only if there are several four day horses on any one day that you should look for the best chance by reference to the other factors referred to above or check the opinion of a similar system. A few words on the actual amount to punt. For any betting system you should allocate yourself an amount as your season's stake say pounds sterling.
Then you need to decide on a daily stake. Sometimes, for instance, a horse may be fast enough to move from maiden to allowance or from allowance to stakes but there are other conditions — track bias, post position, the way the race sets up, odds — that may be working against him or make him a risky bet.
All these factors have to be considered, of course. Those who are foolish enough to believe in class, contended the betting professional, do the sharp player a tremendous service. The greatest thing about class is that there are plenty of idiots out there who think it actually means something. Because of that, they often overlook horses with legitimate chances to win and bet horses who have no shot.
They can create true value. Those who can, do. That was the shared opinion of a pair of professional horse players who regard public race handicappers, speakers and authors with a mixture of contempt and amusement. Watch unbeaten Triple Crown Champion Justify in action!! Art believes many handicappers, public and private, make their first mistake before they ever get to the racetrack.
This is a hopeless strategy. Neither professional player thought there was much to be gained from seminars, lectures or books on handicapping. All that is nonsense. This is a total waste of time because not only do tendencies change but all that is related to price, anyway. What makes the game so incredibly dynamic is are all the variables — bias, price, betting patterns — you have to consider before wagering.
No one can predict those factors in advance. Still, both players feel they owe a debt of gratitude, dubious though it may be, to public handicappers. Maybe this stuff sounds logical to the neophyte or the loser but anyone who bets horses for a living realizes this is infantile, nursery school mentality.
At the highest levels of the game, among those who win, this stuff is laughable. No professional bettor would ever buy into such garbage. And I also suppose you can never bet a horse moving up in company, whether the move is from maidens to winners, allowance to stake or whatever because that horse has never beaten those types before. Why would anyone want to limit their options?
There are enough followers out there who will listen to people who know nothing and repeat what they say. After a while, the junk becomes accepted as fact. If one horse is over bet because he meets some arbitrary criteria, then other horses must be under bet. Because of that, these myths can provide the competent player with tremendous value. What is the likely pace scenario? Which horses have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest?
And what is the racetrack bias? Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Top 5 betting sites. Play now. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Check Also Close. Sports Betting Strategy. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp Telegram.
This calculation starts with , or all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race. For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling Horse racing is known for its exciting and unpredictable finishes , but the vast majority of horse races can be narrowed down to a few true contenders long before the starting gun by considering the abilities of each horse.
The horse with the highest winnings per start average is the class of the field and receives a unit. The next most important factor is consistency, which is determined by dividing the number of starts by the wins accumulated over the year. Speed ratings are commonly used to measure the capabilities of horses, but where they are unavailable the horse with the fastest time on the surface of the day and at the current race distance receives the unit.
After determining the influence of central factors for each horse in the race, percentages can be assigned to each runner. The class horse of the race receives a 10 percent ranking bonus, and the factors are tallied to give each horse a projected chance at winning, shown as a percentage. These percentages can then be converted into fractions, meaning that a horse with a 50 percent ranking would win races roughly half the time.
From this point, ensuring a profit on horse racing wagers is done by taking advantage of favorable odds. Remember, we are trying to reduce handicapping to its barest essentials and speed up the overall process of finding a pick and a bet. By restricting ourselves to consideration of just three horses, we are skipping past the first, laborious stage of handicapping -- weeding out the likeliest losers -- and pinpointing the most probable contenders.
For each of the angles in a contender's record that you find below, give it a check mark:. The horse has finished first, second or third at today's approximate distance and on today's footing in its past three races. By approximate distance, we mean within a furlong. Further, only give credit if the race in question was on dirt, and today's race also is on dirt; if the race in question was on grass, and today's race also in on grass, or if the race in question was on synthetics, and today's race also is on synthetics.
The stricter you are about this and other rudiments, the safer you and your bet will be. The horse finished first, second or third in today's class or better in its last three starts. The horse is dropping in class off its last race, which must have been in the past 45 days. The horse must have won 20 percent or better of at least five starts this year, or this year and last.
The horse posted a big win by three lengths or more in its last out in the past 45 days. The horse had an excuse last out in the past 45 days, such as being bumped, impeded, steadied and the like; this factor becomes particularly intriguing if the horse was favored or ran a close second or third and might have prevailed without interference; the angle also is noteworthy in turf races, customarily staged under conditions full fields on tight-turned courses that can produce roller-derby-like donnybrooks.
The horse lost in its return to competition after a layoff exceeding 45 days or the horse lost in its first career start; both kinds are likely to improve, most especially if they showed any kind of zip in the races in question. The horse posted a bullet five- or six-furlong workout in the past 14 days. The horse's trainer has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year. The horse's jockey has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year.
The horse is adding blinkers which are designed to sharpen a horse's focus or is receiving lasix a diuretic used to control breathing problems for the first time. The horse is running on grass for the first time and has a Tomlinson rating for turf breeding of at least The pick is the horse with the most check marks. The bet is to win only, and only if the horse is even money or better in odds. We want to at least double our money if our horse connects.
In case two or more horses has the same number of check marks, back the runner whose trainer has the highest winning percentage. In the event you are still deadlocked, the bet is on the horse whose jockey has the highest winning percentage. Also, if your leading choice scratches or is held at unacceptably low odds, go to pick number 2.
If that horse also is withdrawn or is also too heavily backed, go to pick number 3.
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