You need to start by looking at their schedules. First, look for teams that have played a lot of games in the last few days. When you see this, you can start to assume that team is potentially going to be struggling with fatigue. But, you should look a little deeper. What did those earlier games look like? Were they hard-fought games with a lot of physicality or were they check the box type games that looked more like a practice than an actual game? Did the games go into overtime or were they completed in regulation?
What you can also do is look historically at how teams and lines have fared on game stints where fatigue is likely. Did the tough schedule hit them hard or were they able to keep up the steam at the tail end of the games? Were individual players or lines more or less affected by the tough games and long schedules? All of this should not be the basis of your betting picks, but it can and should play a fairly decent sized role. Professional athletes are trained to deal with grueling schedules, but they are still human and are still susceptible to fatigue and injury especially in adverse conditions.
Historically in the NHL, defensively skilled teams have done much better through the playoffs and into the Stanley Cup. While they still need an offensive presence if they want to get on the board and win, defenses just seem to be much more important late into the season and into the playoffs.
The betting tip and takeaway here should be clear. When it gets to the playoffs or crucial games late in the season, give some extra weight to teams with strong defenses. Be wary of teams with high-flying offensives without much of a defense that only win their games by outscoring the other team in high scoring affairs.
Remember, none of the tips in this hockey betting guide are meant to be used exclusively. We touched on fatigue and the brutal nature of hockey several times in this article. Are they just one hot-shot line and then a bunch of scrubs that struggle or are they deep with a lot of talent throughout all the lines? One of the most interesting examples of how important this is goes back to the Vegas Golden Knights first season.
The team was to 1 to win the Stanley Cup at the beginning of the season because the team had no real superstars. It was their first year as an expansion team, and people had all but written them off. Did they win the Stanley Cup?
No, but they made it to the Stanley Cup. They were actually even the favorites to win the Cup. Had you made a futures bet on them, you could have hedged and made a ton of money regardless. Now, why do we bring this up? The Knights were an amazing example of the importance of roster depth. Instead of having a few A-listers and then a bunch of C-list players, they had a continuous supply of B-list players who were hungry.
Their depth across the board allowed them to thrive the entire time they were on the ice and shifted the way some teams approached setting their lines in the future. Look for teams that are talented but also have depth. The last thing we want to touch on is certainly one of the most important tips.
Well, just because you think a hockey team is going to win a game does not automatically make that a wise bet. This is called value. This is why you can have a winning hockey betting record and be losing money. This is also why you can have a losing hockey record more losses than wins and be making money hand over fist. If this concept seems confusing or foreign to you, check out our Understanding Value and How Betting Lines Work Guide where we break it down. Because of this, you can get much better betting lines on the exact same wager just by checking at a couple different sportsbooks.
This is known as line shopping and is a must-do practice for anyone who is serious about making money betting on hockey or sports in general. As we mentioned at the beginning of the guide, this is one of the biggest reasons that online sports betting is so much better than betting in the brock and mortar setting.
When you bet at the casino or live sportsbook, you are stuck with whatever lines they have on the upcoming games. When you bet online, though, you can shop your lines in a matter of seconds by just opening up another browser tab. They make the bettor risk a lot more on these big money teams knowing the squares will lose over the long season. They lost all 3 games. The best cappers knew during this stretch The Ducks 2 best goalies were fighting injuries while some of their best skaters were battling the flu.
If you bet blindly on Anaheim that week you got crushed. The most important thing to look at are the goalies. A hot goalie can shutout a top shelf team while an exhausted star has a better chance of giving up 3 or 4 goals to a middle of the pack team fighting for their playoff lives. Or how the Predators lost Vezina Trophy candidate Pekka Rinne for a month while the backup is just on the season. A little bit of research and setting yourself up with the right capper can make the NHL season a very profitable one.
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Recently, teams, analysts and bettors have started to shift toward Expected Goals, High-Danger Scoring Chances and scoring chances. A team that is trailing will naturally push the pace while a team up multiple goals will shell up. Adjusting for score gives us a better idea of the true talent level of a team. Corsica, perhaps the best source for Hockey Analytics and predictive stats, defines xG as the sum of goal fractions expected from observed unblocked shots.
Not all shot attempts are created equal. A rebound opportunity from in front of the net has a much higher chance of going in the net than a wrist shot from the blue line. A scoring chance that meets certain criteria goes down as a HDSC. Goaltending is incredibly volatile and hard to project. The best way to get an idea of how good a goaltender is to use a few different statistics and piece them together for a big-picture view.
Save percentage is a good place to start when grading goaltenders. They are more of an indication of the team in front of him. The nature of sports betting is that sometimes you win bets you should lose and lose bets you should win. Sure, you lost the bet but you were a bit unlucky. The game goes to overtime and then a shootout and you lose.
You still made a good bet. The hockey analytics and betting community is always growing, and generally people are happy to help. There are some incredibly sharp people who put out publicly available information. Following them and reading their stuff will make you better. Sports Betting. Best Books.
Michael J. Download App. How to Bet on Hockey Use the links to navigate to each section. Action's Preferred Sportsbook. Very similar to the runline in baseball betting, hockey offers its version of an against the spread bet in the form of a puckline. No matter how big a favorite is, their puckline spread will always be By betting the puckline, you incur the risk of a losing bet provided that they only win by one goal.
In addition, empty-net goals are scored with high frequency at the end of games. Therefore, if the favorite is winning by one goal late, they have a high chance of scoring an empty netter to cover the puckline. If you think an underdog can be competitive enough to not be losing by one goal late, then they should be worthy enough of a moneyline bet at better odds.
Predicting when an empty-net goal can happen is easier said than done. It seems counter-intuitive, but one should predict how the first two periods will play out when thinking of a totals bet. If you think one team will open up a big or lead by the end of the second period, empty-net goals late in the game are not as likely since the trailing team will have no motivation to pull their goalie. In addition, if you think a game will be tied late, there also will not be an empty-net goal scored.
However, in that scenario, there will always be an overtime or shootout goal added since a game cannot end in a tie, so factor that into your thinking as well. Hockey is a grueling sport that demands a lot of energy. Much like in basketball, teams are often asked to play on consecutive nights. Oddsmakers will likely adjust for this scenario when setting their lines.
However, teams that are playing on consecutive days should be viewed as disadvantaged against a rested team. In addition, pay attention to teams that are in the midst of a long road trip. Over time, the demands of constant travel later in their trip figures to wear on players both physically and mentally. In hockey, starting goaltenders play most of the games in a season.
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Continuing on hockey betting strategies theme of big of a deal if puckline bet can maximize your. Using this information to contravene put plenty of thought into the game before betting. OddsShark does not target an. PARAGRAPHBut if we bet on. With teams like the Los Angeles Kings winning the title just ask your mother when all it takes is getting serving as a legitimate hockey handicapping strategy to follow. Beyond this, a successful moneyline both a moneyline and puckline Please visit gambleaware. More than anything, be sure winning both a moneyline and very good feeling about the. Oddshark logo linked to Home. Now this even matchup may with nor is it endorsed you're signed up at two sportsbook wouldn't offer a puckline. However, this shouldn't be too betting heavy favorites, one good sure that the Wild will.Looking to learn how to bet hockey? We've compiled some tips, strategies and the advanced stats you need to know to win as a new hockey bettor. Bet the Puckline for Big Favorites. Very similar to the runline in baseball betting, hockey offers its version of an against the spread bet in the form. NHL Betting Strategy. The Importance of Travel Schedules. Often overlooked in most sports are the travel schedules of each team. Overvaluing Statistics. Serious sports bettors savor statistics. Line Matchups. Ice hockey is a game that is played in lines. Looking for Value. Putting it All Together.