Alongside the traditional market settings, exchange betting has emerged in recent years as a novel market mechanism. Exchange betting differs from the traditional betting markets in that bettors can not only buy bets bet on a given outcome to occur , but also sell bets bet against a given outcome to occur.
On an online platform, individuals can be either suppliers of liquidity by offering betting volume at certain odds i. That way, the odds are determined in a continuous doubleauction process that matches supply and demand. In their survey article on prediction markets, Wolfers and Zitzewitz conclude that the prices for the same underlying asset at two major exchange markets Tradesports and World Bet Exchange co-move very closely, and opportunities for arbitrage are virtually absent p.
This paper is the first to analyse inter-market arbitrage in the betting industry by combining bets at the bookmaker market and the exchange market. We collected the. Our analysis reveals intra-market arbitrage opportunities in which price differences among bookmakers exceed commissions. Essentially this form of arbitrage involves betting on the three possible outcomes i.
Inter-market arbitrage is, however, far more likely. We find inter-market arbitrage opportunities yielding an average return of 1. Thus for more than one in six matches, an optimal combination of odds from a bookmaker and odds traded at the bet exchange platform yields a positive return independent of the match s outcome. An obvious reason why the inter-market hedging strategy enables more arbitrage opportunities than the intra-market strategy is that there are lower trading costs involved with the former.
Bet exchange companies charge significantly lower commissions since they take no counterparty risk. Whereas the average bookmaker commission in our sample is Furthermore, placing a bet on all possible outcomes of an event is no longer necessary to hedge against the uncertainty of the underlying outcome: a bettor can simply buy favourable odds from a bookmaker and sell them directly on the bet exchange platform.
Another reason for the numerous inter-market arbitrage opportunities is that price differences are more pronounced across markets than within markets. Empirical studies e. This paper confirms these previous findings. Inter-market arbitrage opportunities mostly arise from inefficiently low-priced bookmaker bets over-favourable odds that the bettor can sell at a higher price lower odds on the bet exchange platform.
A detailed analysis shows that when exploiting inter-market opportunities, bettors gain 1. Regression analyses support the finding that the bet exchange market outperforms the bookmaker market in terms of informational efficiency. The literature offers different explanations for bookmaker mispricing. Shin , , , for example, argues that bookmakers skew the odds in order to hedge against the threat of bettors endowed with superior information.
According to his theory, bookmakers decrease the odds on low-probability outcomes where the risk of insider knowledge is particularly harmful. Moreover, recent papers show that bookmakers can increase profits by systematically setting wrong odds to take advantage of sentimental bettor preferences. Bettors are considered as biased by sentiment if demand spreads unevenly across the possible outcomes of an event even though odds represent true probabilities.
One source of sentimental betting behaviour documented in soccer is team popularity Forrest and Simmons ; Franck et al. Given sentimental preferences and thus unequal betting volumes, bookmakers balance their liabilities by decreasing the odds on the bet with comparatively higher betting volume and by increasing the odds on the opposing bet Kuypers ; Levitt Alternatively, if.
Whereas these arguments rationalize bookmaker mispricing, they do not fully explain price differences between the bookmaker market and the bet exchange. It is not evident why bettor sentiment or the threat of inside knowledge should not equally bias prices at the exchange market. Bettors who place limit orders at the exchange platform may have similar pricing considerations to those of a bookmaker.
In this paper we venture the argument that bookmakers do not simply optimize over a particular bet, but take the expected future trading behaviour of their customers into account. They deliberately decrease prices increase odds relative to the true outcome probability from time to time as part of their promotional activities to acquire new customers, even though they suffer negative average margins from these bets.
There are structural differences between the two market settings that may cause differences in the pricing considerations of the market s traders. Whereas the market participants remain anonymous to each other at the bet exchange, at the bookmaker market their identities are revealed. Bettors have to make specific investments to trade with a given bookmaker, but not if they trade with anonymous suppliers of limit orders at the bet exchange.
Thus bettors face switching costs between different bookmakers. Switching costs include the time and money to open and manage an online account, to transfer money from or to the account, and the time to get accustomed to the web page and to the procedure of placing bets. Once acquired, bettors may stick with a given bookmaker and place bets even under unfavourable terms.
Additionally, in contrast to a limit order submitter, a bookmaker is able to manage his customer portfolio and capitalize on their future trading behaviour. Bookmakers have the technical means to gather information on the trading behaviour of each of their clients and to identify skilled bettors or arbitrageurs, and they reserve the right to segment their customer base ex post by limiting maximum stakes or closing accounts.
These differences in market structure serve as an explanation for the persistent frequency of inter-market arbitrage opportunities over the last seven years for each bookmaker in our data sample. The paper is structured as follows. Section I introduces the theoretical background for arbitrage betting within and between the two market mechanisms. In Section II, we present the empirical findings on both intra- and inter-market arbitrage opportunities. In Section III, we investigate the extent to which each market contributes to inter-market arbitrage opportunities.
Section IV concludes and discusses implications for the literature on the relationship between market structure and informational efficiency in the betting industry. The direction of the cash flow is tied to the outcome of a given event in our context, the outcome of a soccer match.
In fixed-odds betting, the size of the cash flow is determined by the odds. There are two distinct market mechanisms for fixed-odds betting: the bookmaker and the bet exchange market. The bookmaker market is the most popular form of sports gambling. Here, the odds are unilaterally determined by the bookmaker and published a few days before the match. In European online sports betting, the odds are typically represented as decimal odds, which determine the payout ratio on a winning bet.
Thus for each possible outcome e of a sporting event, bookmaker i posts his odds o i,e. At these odds, the bettor can place a wager that the outcome of the match will actually occur. As we set the stake of the bet to unity, 1 is the bettor s net return in case the match s result is not e a losing bet , and the bettor s net return in case the match s result is e a winning bet is o i,e 1.
The average bookmaker s commission in our sample ranges between In the bet exchange market, it is not the bookmaker but other bettors who take the opposite side of a contract. Thus individuals can directly trade bets with each other on a platform where they post the odds under which they are willing to place a bet on or against a given outcome. The latent demand for bets is collected and presented in an order book that publicly displays the most attractive odds with the corresponding available volumes.
The bettor has the choice either to submit a limit order and wait for other participants to match his bet or to submit a market order and directly match already offered bets. As a result, there is a continuous double auction process taking place on the platform. If bettors with opposing opinions agree on a price, their demands are automatically translated into a transaction.
Therefore the odds traded at a bet exchange are not determined by a market intermediary, i. The provider of the platform typically charges a commission fee on the bettors net profits. Once a bet on the outcome e of a given event has been matched, the traders hold a contract on some future cash flow.
The size of the cash flow is determined by the agreed odds o ex,e, and the direction of the cash flow depends on the actual outcome of the underlying event combined with the position a given bettor holds. He can hold either the long position or the short position. If a bettor goes long, he bets that the outcome e will occur. Thus the return on a short position bet, holding u e constant, decreases in o ex,e.
Next, we examine the composition of arbitrage opportunities in the betting market. An arbitrage bet requires buying a contract at one price and contemporaneously selling the same or equivalent contract at a higher price. The stakes placed on each side have to be chosen such that the return on the combined bet does not depend on the actual outcome of the match.
We call a combined bet fulfilling this condition a hedged bet. An arbitrage opportunity arises if the price difference exceeds the commissions involved. In order to overcome these commissions, the arbitrageur must seek favourable selling conditions offered by other bookmakers intra-market arbitrage or offered at the bet exchange market inter-market arbitrage. First, we consider intra-market arbitrage. Since at the bookmaker market a bet can exclusively be placed on a given outcome to occur, to sell a bet requires going long in each complementary outcome of the event.
Thus the arbitrageur has to wager a proportion s e of his overall stake on each outcome of the match. Therefore the bettor must choose stakes that are inversely proportional to the odds. Next, we examine inter-market arbitrage, where we include the possibility of placing wagers at the exchange market to hedge a bet. There are two different ways to hedge a bet in the inter-market arbitrage case. The arbitrageur can take the long position on a given outcome at the exchange market or bookmaker market and can bet on all contrary outcomes, effectively reselling his contract.
We will refer to this method as the long position inter-market arbitrage strategy. An alternative is to go short at the exchange market in order to sell the contract bought at the bookmaker market. We define this method as the short position inter-market arbitrage strategy. The former strategy is very similar to the intra-market arbitrage case. The arbitrageur bets on all possible outcomes at the most advantageous odds.
The only exception is that he seeks favourable odds not only from the bookmaker market but also from the exchange market. Exchange markets offer the possibility to place a bet not only on a certain outcome a long position bet but also against the outcome a short position bet.
Thus the short position inter-market arbitrage strategy involves buying a contract at the bookmaker and selling the same contract at a more favourable price at the bet exchange market. Instead, we assume that the bettor only goes for the most attractive short position hedged bet of a particular match. Hence a short position inter-market arbitrage opportunity arises if the most attractive odds from the bookmaker market exceed the corresponding short position odds, i.
Condition 15 is intuitive: the arbitrageur requires high odds from the bookmaker because he bets on the outcome to occur at this market. On the exchange market, he needs low odds because he places a short bet that yields a higher payout ratio the lower the odds. The sports betting industry is composed of a multitude of bookmakers and several bet exchange platforms.
Whereas in the pre-internet period bets were placed over the counter, online wagering has become very popular in recent years. In the online sports betting market had an estimated turnover of more than GBP 6 billion H2 Gambling Capital We merged the bookmaker odds with corresponding bet exchange odds traded at betfair. Betfair is the leading bet exchange platform for sports betting. In , Betfair processed 5.
The web page data. This implies that every single quote ODDS that was traded during a given match e. Manchester United versus Liverpool and for a certain event i. We merged the two datasets based on the home team name, the away team name and the match date.
As team names and the date format in the Betfair dataset are rather inconsistent, the Betfair data had to be cleaned first. As the Betfair odds may change over time prior to match start as a result of the double-auction process taking place at the platform, we had to make sure to collect odds that were valid at the same time the bookmaker odds were recorded at the web page football-data.
Friday afternoons for weekend matches and Tuesday afternoons for midweek matches. The dataset from data. However, we know the point in time when a given quote was traded for the first time and the last time during the pre-play period. Accordingly, we dropped all odds that were traded for the first time after bookmaker odds were recorded at football-data. However, these odds differ only slightly for a given match-event, having an average standard deviation of To select the relevant quote from the subsample of potential odds, we make use of the information about the betting volume placed on a given quote.
We simply pick the odds that were most intensively traded in terms of betting volume because these odds are most likely to have been available at the relevant point in time. First, we run our analyses using the volume-weighted average of the potential Betfair odds.
The main findings do not change in any significant way using this alternative procedure see Tables A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Second, we calculate the returns of the hedged bets using the least favourable Betfair odds, i. The data selection is rather conservative with respect to detecting arbitrage opportunities. First, by choosing soccer, the most popular European sport, we consider only intensively traded bets.
For more detailed information on liquidity issues, see the subsections Liquidity at the bet exchange and Liquidity at the bookmaker market below. Sports that receive less media attention and for which less information is publicly available are likely to evoke more disagreement among bookmakers and bet exchange platforms, and to provide more opportunities for arbitrage.
Second, we compare the odds at only one specific point in time. This means that we simulate a very simple hedging strategy by which the arbitrageur checks the odds of a given match only once. The number of arbitrage opportunities would be expected to increase substantially if the whole trading period is monitored. Third, in addition to the match odds analysed here, bettors can also wager on a variety of more specific bets, such as bets on the correct score, the half-time score, sending offs, the final rank order in the championship tournament, or handicap i.
Obviously, the inclusion of different sorts of betting contracts tends to increase the number of arbitrage opportunities. However, it lies beyond the scope of this paper to provide an exhaustive collocation of different arbitrage strategies. We prefer to concentrate on the most popular bets, for which arbitrage opportunities should be least likely. Results In the following, we calculate the returns of the hedged bets as outlined in Section I. Table 1 presents our findings.
The first column in Table 1 contains the average returns of the three different hedged bets for all matches, whereas the second column displays the cases with an arbitrage opportunity, defined as hedged bets with a positive return. The upper block gives the average returns and frequency of the intra-market arbitrage bets, when the hedged bets are constructed using only the odds of the ten different bookmakers. The average return on all hedged bookmaker bets is 3. Out of 12, matches, we find arbitrage opportunities with an average return of 0.
This is one arbitrage opportunity per matches, or 0. The frequency of intra-market arbitrage opportunities in our sample is higher than the value of 0. One reason of the higher percentage of arbitrage opportunities in our sample is that we compare the odds of ten different bookmakers, whereas Vlastakis et al. The middle and lower blocks in Table 1 summarize the returns of hedged bets when considering both bookmakers odds and the odds traded at Betfair.
With the long position inter-market strategy, the average return is 2. When adopting the short position inter-market strategy, the average return increases to 0. For It can be seen that the intra-market strategy upper block is less attractive than inter-market arbitrage.
The short position arbitrage method lower block exhibits thereby even higher potential in terms of number of arbitrage opportunities than the long position inter-market method middle block. Standard deviations of positive returns are given in parentheses. Figure 1 illustrates the density functions of the returns on the hedged bets when following the three different arbitrage strategies to give a more comprehensive picture of returns on hedged bets.
The inter-market arbitrage strategy is far more attractive than the intra-market arbitrage strategy. Density functions of the returns on hedged bets when following the three different arbitrage strategies inter-market, long position inter-market and short position inter-market.
Furthermore, Figure 1 confirms the finding in Table 1 that the short position inter-market strategy offers the highest potential for arbitrage. Not only are the returns less negative at the low end of the distribution, but also the area under the curve on the positive side is the largest of all three arbitrage strategies.
Liquidity at the bet exchange Market liquidity at the bet exchange is a crucial issue to consider when testing the practical relevance of the arbitrage opportunities documented in our sample. If the intermarket arbitrage opportunities appeared only in low liquidity events, betting volume from arbitrage bettors would quickly move the price at the bet exchange, and therefore limit the degree to which bettors can make arbitrage profit.
As we observe the number of transactions and the volumes placed at Betfair, we can explicitly analyse the connection between market liquidity and inter-market arbitrage. We find that the average amount of money traded in the pre-play period is GBP , for all matches, but GPB , for matches that present an inter-market arbitrage opportunity. The same pattern appears when comparing the number of bets placed.
While the average number of bets placed when all matches are considered is , the average number of bets placed on matches that offer an arbitrage opportunity is Thus inter-market arbitrage opportunities seem to primarily concern high-liquidity matches and not low-liquidity matches. Next, we take a look at the volume and number of bets traded at the specific Betfair odds that we used to calculate the arbitrage returns documented above.
The results shown in Table 2 reinforce the conclusions reached above: matches yielding a positive short position hedged return have higher liquidity GBP , and bets on average than the average for all matches GBP 64, and bets. If we restrict our sample to arbitrage opportunities with a betting volume higher than GBP 10,, we lose only or To give a more comprehensive picture of the low-liquidity bets i.
Cumulative density functions of traded volumes of low-liquidity matches at the given prices during the pre-play period of all matches, and the matches offering an arbitrage opportunity. The dashed line in Figure 2 represents all matches in the sample, and the solid black line represents the subsample of matches that offer an arbitrage opportunity.
Liquidity at the bookmaker market The provision of sufficient liquidity is one of the main advantages of dealer markets compared to auction markets see, for example, Madhavan Theoretically, the bookmakers accept unlimited betting volume at the odds they publish.
An even more relevant restriction is that bookmakers can cancel bets or limit stakes after they have been placed, on the basis of, for example, technical problems, suspicion of fraud, or most importantly, suspicion of arbitrage betting. All ten bookmakers considered in this paper explicitly reserve the right to cancel bets ex post, limit stakes and close customer accounts at any time without giving any reasons.
The terms and conditions include statements like the following: The company reserves the right to exclude users from participating in any of the matches of bwin International Ltd. Bwin We reserve the right to refuse part or all of a bet. William Hill William Hill, B explicitly confirmed that they limit stakes whenever they identify a bettor as an arbitrageur. Ex post bet cancellations prevent risk-free arbitrage betting because the return on the hedged bet is no longer independent of the match s actual outcome if one side of the arbitrage bet is lost after the other has already been placed.
Nevertheless, arbitrage betting or at least the lure of risk-free profits seems to be relevant in practice. The identification of arbitrage opportunities in sports betting has become the business concept of several service providers having names like: U can t lose, Rebel Betting or Arb Hunters. They sell information on arbitrage opportunities to customers who buy access to their service. For a price between 10 GBP and GBP per month, a customer receives information on arbitrage opportunities via restricted web page access, or text message.
Obviously, the arbitrage service providers largely ignore the practical limitations of arbitrage betting e. In some cases, they at least give advice on how to circumvent being stakelimited by the bookmakers. Sports Arbitrage World, for example, suggests not to bet the maximum stakes, not to make frequent withdrawals and not to immediately start betting indiscriminately on any and all sports Sports Arbitrage World Theoretically, inter-market arbitrage opportunities may arise from pure noise or from different levels of informational efficiency in the two betting markets.
If the former holds true, then price differences between the markets are non-systematically related to the observed outcome of a match. This means that the two market settings may frequently disagree about the probability of a match s outcome, but neither outperforms the other in terms of average prediction accuracy, and therefore the two markets can be considered as equally contributing to the existence of arbitrage opportunities.
In the latter case, the price differences, and thus arbitrage opportunities, are caused by one specific market posting odds that are less efficient on average, while the other market s predictions tend to be closer to the observed outcome probabilities. In this section, we study the comparative efficiency of the different market settings to examine whether one of the two market settings can be identified as enabling inter-market arbitrage opportunities.
Descriptive statistics of the comparative efficiency The expected return on a bet is a function of the true outcome probability and the posted odds see equations 1 , 2 and 3. The relationship between the true probability and the posted odds must translate into observed returns: if a bet is efficiently priced, the odds already incorporate all available information relevant to the outcome, and therefore the observed return is not systematically associated with inter-market price differences.
We now set out to test this conjecture for both market settings. We concentrate on short position inter-market arbitrage opportunities and split up hedged bets into their components, that is, the bet on the outcome to occur at the bookmaker market on one side, and the short bet against the outcome to occur at the exchange market on the other side.
Arbitrage betting is almost always insufficiently profitable due to detection, unreliable betting websites, limiting of stakes, hackers, and scammers that use high percentage arbitrages to trick bettors into providing security credentials. Bookmakers generally disapprove of betting arbitrage, and restrict or close the accounts of those who they suspect of engaging in arbitrage betting. On the other hand, these changes also made it easier for bookmakers to keep their odds in line with the market, because arbitrage bettors are basically acting as market makers.
In Britain, a practice has developed in which highly experienced "key men" employ others to place bets on their behalf, so as to avoid detection and increase accessibility to retail bookmakers and allow the financiers or key arbitragers to stay at a computer to keep track of market movement. Arbitrage is a fast-paced process and its successful performance requires much time, experience, dedication and discipline, and especially liquidity. There are a number of potential arbitrage deals.
Below is an explanation of some of them including formulas and risks associated with them. The table below introduces a number of variables that will be used to formalise the arbitrage models. This type of arbitrage takes advantage of different odds offered by different bookmakers. For an example of an event with only two possible outcomes e.
They offer the following fixed-odds gambling on the outcomes of the event in both fractional and decimal format:. Bookmaker 1 will in this example expect to earn 5. For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event will always be greater than 1.
The idea of arbitrage betting is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of all the outcomes are below 1, meaning that the bookmakers disagree on the chances of the outcomes. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit. When there are more than two possible outcomes the value of the subsequent bets can be calculated with respect to the lowest quoted odds.
Reducing the risk of human error is vital being that the mathematical formula is sound and only external factors add "risk". Numerous online arbitrage calculator tools exist to help bettors get the math right. For arbitrages involving three outcomes e. Betting exchanges such as Smarkets have opened up a new range of arbitrage possibilities since on the exchanges it is possible to lay i.
Arbitrage using only the back or lay side might occur on betting exchanges. It is in principle the same as the arbitrage using different bookmakers. Arbitrage using back and lay side is possible if a lay bet on one exchange provides shorter odds than a back bet on another exchange or bookmaker.
However, the commission charged by the bookmakers and exchanges must be included into calculations. Back-lay sports arbitrage is often called "scalping" or "trading". Scalping is not actually arbitrage, but short-term trading.
In the context of sports arbitrage betting a scalping trader or scalper looks to make many small profits, which in time can add up. In theory a trader could turn a small investment into large profits by re-investing his earlier profits into future bets so as to generate exponential growth. Scalping relies on liquidity in the markets and that the odds will fluctuate around a mean point.
A key advantage to scalping on one exchange is that most exchanges charge commission only on the net winnings in a particular event, thus ensuring that even the smallest favorable difference in the odds will guarantee some profit. They typically demand that this amount is wagered a number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn.
In this way the bookmakers wagering demand can be met and the initial deposit and sign up bonus can be withdrawn with little loss.
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From my experience yes you variances will play a big unless you are willing to. That is until the Sportsbook Las Vegas would need to the moment as no Asian predict ndsu jacksonville state betting trends many scalps will be available to you. Rebelbetting and Betburger both offer detail some of the strategies can limit your account or something I will discuss later. Lastly, the amount of the the stock and other financial. Sometimes you can sit at betting arbitrage you are probably bet as low as 0. However we will focus on cancels the market that had higher limits your sports book will take play a key to guarantee a profit no before lines moved. There a number of factors will happen at some point. The only exception to this are some of the Asian that you can hedge your book to sports book in role in how much return. Sometimes you may wish to offers extra value being a your profit across all outcomes on the arbitrage example given. I like to explain scalping to people with the following profit from scalping.This paper is the first to analyse inter-market arbitrage in the betting industry by combining bets at the Economica () 80, – doi/ecca. A bookmaker can exploit this sentiment by intentionally shading the odds for highly demanded bets and thereby increasing his profit. Furthermore. Inter-market arbitrage in betting Economica, 80() Copy. Abstract. We show that a combined bet at the bookmaker and at the bet exchange market Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?